How 'Bohemian Rhapsody' and Glenn Close's big upsets have changed Academy Awards fortunes.
What do the Golden Globes tell us about the Oscars? Well, nothing and potentially everything. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a notoriously unpredictable bunch with little-to-no overlap with the Academy. But Sunday's ceremony did offer its winners quite a platform to get some last-minute face time with Oscar voters ahead of nominations voting opening on Monday.
This means that the series of upsets that took place at the Globes could shake the standings of the 91st Annual Academy Awards at a very crucial time. Here are five things I'll be keeping in mind as I reevaluate my Oscar predictions:
1. Bohemian Rhapsody is a serious Oscar contender. The embattled Queen biopic -- which Rotten Tomatoes shadily pointed out clocks a 62 percent freshness rating -- went from being a critical punching bag to a prospective Best Picture nominee after winning two of the Globe's top honors: Best Motion Picture - Drama and Best Actor in a Drama, for Rami Malek's buzzy turn as Freddie Mercury. Anticipated winners A Star Is Born and Bradley Cooper may be feeling the sting of the losses, but their nomination prospects are hardly in jeopardy. Their status as the obvious front-runners, however, feels more uncertain. Which brings us to...
2. Glenn Close is the official Best Actress front-runner. If Close's inclusion in the Best Actress race ever seemed in doubt, her Best Actress in a Drama win over Lady Gaga and barnburner of an acceptance speech sealed the deal that she's this year's one to beat. Not that Gaga, who won Best Original Song, or Olivia Colman, who won Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, lost much momentum. The Best Actress field is always crowded, and now we have a real race. Things don't look as hopeful for...
3. Mary Poppins Returns' odds aren't so practically perfect. Early reactions to Disney's Poppins sequel (mine included) foresaw the musical following in the original's Oscar footsteps – if not in as many wins (five, with eight more nominations), at least in a few select nods like Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Original Song. But following a mixed critical reception and soft box office, Mary Poppins Returns left the Globes empty-handed. (It doesn't help that it was passed over at the Producers Guild Awards.) Emily Blunt could still find herself in the Best Actress race, but just as easily the groundswell of support for Roma could push Yalitza Aparicio past her.
4. Regina King shouldn't worry about that SAG snub. While a number of Oscar players will be leaving the Globes unnerved, someone who should be feeling pleasantly reassured is Beale Street's King, who won Best Supporting Actress after being egregiously overlooked by the Screen Actors Guild. With the criminally under-awarded Amy Adams losing out in both her categories, King is once again the Best Supporting Actress front-runner, with the Vice actress and Colman's The Favourite "b**ches" Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in pursuit. (First Man's only Globes love was a Best Original Score win, so Claire Foy's nomination remains in limbo.)
5. Green Book isn't showing any signs of stalling. When director Peter Farley's latest won TIFF's People's Choice Award, it appeared to be a bellwether for Best Picture nominations. Despite its lead actor dropping the N-word, despite the family of one of the film's subjects publicly rejecting it as a "symphony of lies" (and forcing Mahershala Ali to issue an apology), despite it not being a musical or even a comedy, really, Green Book won Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, as well as Best Supporting Actor for Ali and Best Screenplay. Now, if a new round of criticism over these Globes wins doesn't have any significant effect, not only will Green Book maintain its Best Picture placement, but Farley might just land in Best Director. Crazier things have happened. (See: Academy Award Nominee Bohemian Rhapsody.)
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