ET's best guesses as to who will win in each of the movie categories come Sunday night, as well as who actually should take home the Globe.
When it comes to predicting the winners of, say, the Oscars, there is some metric to follow -- or, at least, there's precedent to the types of films the Academy likes and what they deem worthy of accolade. With the Golden Globes, it's anyone's guess who the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who loves rubbing elbows with an A-lister as much as it values a quality movie, will have taken a shine to this year. (I mean, just look at the nominations.) In every sense of the word, the Golden Globes are unpredictable.
Will The Shape of Water, the Globes' most-nominated movie of the year, beat out The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri in this year's tightest race? How funny will the winner of Best Comedy or Musical actually be? Could a Best Supporting Actor win for Christopher Plummer help pave a very, very surprising road to the Oscars? Will Meryl Streep win her ninth Globe, thus breaking her own record? And could Mariah Carey become "Golden Globe Winner Mariah Carey"?
Below, I'm offering my best guesses as to who will win in each of the movie categories come Sunday night, as well as breaking down who actually should take home the Globe. (If you're looking for the TV categories, see here!)
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
If you want to hear my theories as to why the beautiful CMBYN is already being overlooked this awards season, find me after class. Instead, this race is thisclose between Shape of Water, Three Billboards and The Post. I'll go with the former, based on number of nominations (seven, to the other films' six) and the HFPA's affinity for an oddball.
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Who Should Win: Lady Bird
Who Will Win: Get Out
The Globes has always played fast and loose with what's "comedy" and what's considered a "drama." According to their own rules, "Dramas with comedic overtones should be entered as dramas." Which makes Get Out's inclusion here...puzzling. Lady Bird is more of a comedy, I'd argue, and is riding into awards season on a wave of love. Still, I expect the timely and evisceratingly good Get Out will take it.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
That Hawkins is able to deliver a deeply felt performance while barely uttering one single line merits a showering of awards. But the HFPA seems to have loooved Three Billboards and won't let it walk away empty-handed. As a six-time Globe nominee, it's time McDormand got her win. (Also, she's damn good in the movie.)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Oldman acts the hell out of the prosthetics required to resurrect Winston Churchill, which has made him the surest sure thing we've got. Get used to hearing his name as he sweeps every award he's nominated for this season. (I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a Day-Lewis upset, though, considering it's his final film.) (I also wouldn't be at all upset to see a Chalamet acceptance speech.)
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Who Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Who Will Win: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
This is one of the categories that I go back and forth on, pulling my hair out as I scream into the abyss, "I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE HFPA IS GOING TO DO!!" Betting money is on Ronan, and for good reason, but I have a hunch Robbie's flashier turn as Tonya Harding will take home the Globe. Not that it would be an upset, necessarily, seeing how great Robbie is at playing Tonya at various ages throughout her life.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Who Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Who Will Win: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Kaluuya's performance won't have you rolling around on the floor laughing -- if it does, you might want to do some serious self-reflecting -- but this was the category he was put in, and he's very, very good in what he does deliver. Franco, however, will win for his bonkersly nuanced and endlessly watchable transformation into Tommy Wiseau.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Who Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
At the risk of predicting a complete shutout for Lady Bird -- that couldn't possibly happen, could it? -- this award has Janney's name all over it. (At least for the Globes. The race continues for the Academy Award.)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Who Should Win: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Not so long ago, it seemed ridiculous that Plummer would get nominated for All the Money in the World, since, y'know, he filmed his portion of the movie one month before it came out. Now it seems ridiculous for him not to win. How could the HFPA pass up that acceptance speech?
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
This is another close category that could seemingly go any which way: Nolan's execution with Dunkirk is awe-inspiring. Scott pulled off the unimaginable with his eleventh-hour reshoots. Spielberg is Spielberg. But I imagine the love for Shape of Water will carry over into honoring del Toro, who -- believe it or not -- is a first time nominee here.
Best Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Liz Hannah & Josh Singer, The Post
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Who Will Win: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is yet another race del Toro (with co-writer Taylor) could win, though one Gerwig should win, for a screenplay that feels both sprawling and quaint, unique and lived-in and full of heart. But I suspect McDonagh will win. For all its faults, Three Billboards is a script that's going to leave people talking.
Best Motion Picture - Animated
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Who Should Win: Coco
Who Will Win: Coco
In the 11 years the HFPA has been awarding a Best Animated Film, Disney has only lost twice. (The year The Adventures of Tintin beat Cars 2 and when How to Train Your Dragon 2 beat Big Hero 6.) If Disney is in the mix, it truly is an honor to just be nominated.
Best Motion Picture - Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square
Who Should Win: A Fantastic Woman
Who Will Win: The Square
The foreign film that should win is France's BPM. Alas, it was slighted its rightful nomination. My loyalty then shifts to A Fantastic Woman, though The Square, the Cannes-winning dark comedy which is one of the most buzzed-about entries, will surely come out on top. (That is, unless the HFPA wants an Angelina Jolie moment, in which case they opt for First They Killed My Father.)
Best Original Score
Alexander Desplat, The Shape of Water
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Johnny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
John Williams, The Post
Who Should Win: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Who Will Win: Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Greenwood (of Radiohead fame) has created something gorgeous in his lush and lilting Phantom Thread compositions, hands down his best collaboration with director Paul Thomas Anderson yet. Nevertheless, Zimmer has been a long-time favorite of the HFPA, a now 14-time nominee, whose last Globe win was in 2011.
Best Original Song
"Home," Ferdinand
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Remember Me," Coco
"The Star," The Star
"This Is Me," The Greatest Showman
Who Should Win: "Remember Me," Coco
Who Will Win: "The Star," The Star
I'm ending on my most jaded note yet. "Remember Me" certainly has mass appeal and an emotional wallop propelling it, but c'mon...If the HFPA is inviting Mariah Carey to their awards show, they're giving Mariah Carey an award. We'll see how my predictions fare and find out how all of the categories shake out soon enough, though.
The 75th Annual Golden Globe Awards, hosted by Seth Meyers, will be handed out live on Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018 starting at 8 p.m. ET on NBC.
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